The XRP price has jumped more than 12% over the past 24 hours, climbing back to around $1.39 and erasing weeks of losses as the relief rally analysts flagged back in June finally materialized. The token, which slid to a 2026 low of $1.01 on June 25, has now recaptured the $1.39–$1.40 zone that technical analysts identified as a critical "price magnet" months ago. The move comes as the broader crypto market bounces — Bitcoin is up nearly 7% and Ether roughly 4% — yet XRP's advance is among the strongest of any major asset, leaving investors to ask whether the rebound has further to run.
From a $1.01 Low to a $1.40 Breakout: The Setup Behind XRP's Rally
XRP entered the summer deeply oversold. After touching $1.01 in late June — its lowest level of 2026 and down roughly 43% year-to-date — the token was flirting with its first close below $1 since November 2024. On the weekly chart, XRP's 20-week exponential moving average was on the verge of crossing below its 200-week counterpart, a rare "death cross" that has historically been followed by sharp mean-reversion rebounds, including a roughly 20% recovery in 2019 and an 82.7% rebound in 2022.
Cointelegraph analysts at the time pointed to a $236.5 million cluster of short liquidations parked between $1.37 and $1.40, arguing that a squeeze could force short sellers to buy back their positions and propel XRP toward that zone — precisely the level the token has now reached. The setup, they wrote, implied roughly 23% to 25% upside from XRP's June price near $1.13.
Whales, Shrinking Supply and ETF Inflows Tell the Real Story
Beneath the price action, onchain data was quietly turning bullish. Since June 3, more than 720 million XRP left exchanges, with Binance whales leading the way at 425 million XRP — the most sustained whale-sized outflows since early February. CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha separately noted that Binance's XRP reserve had fallen to its lowest level since March after roughly 100 million XRP left the exchange over the preceding month, with the balance sitting at about 2.68 billion XRP. Withdrawal transactions exceeded deposits for seven consecutive days, the longest withdrawal-led stretch in roughly a year.
Large holders were also accumulating. XRP whale flow on the 90-day moving average stayed positive throughout the quarter at about 5.14 million XRP per day, signaling consistent net accumulation by big wallets rather than distribution. Institutional demand added further support: spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded $2 million in net inflows on June 24 alone, lifting the cumulative total to $243 million since April.
Shrinking exchange supply and steady whale accumulation reduce the amount of XRP available for immediate sale, setting the stage for outsized moves when demand returns — exactly what appears to be unfolding now. A negative Sharpe ratio of about -0.36, which has historically aligned with XRP's strongest subsequent gains, reinforced the accumulation thesis.
Timeline: How XRP's Recovery Unfolded
- June 10–11, 2026: XRP transaction demand falls 91.5%, and analysts warn of a potential drop below $1.
- June 16, 2026: Whale wallet withdrawals top 720 million XRP; XRP rebounds to $1.30.
- June 22, 2026: Analysts flag a 25% relief-rally target of $1.39–$1.40.
- June 25, 2026: XRP hits its 2026 low of $1.01; Binance's reserve sits at its lowest since March.
- July 2026: Ripple launches Ripple Mint; Aviva Investors debuts a tokenized fund on the XRP Ledger.
- August 3, 2026: Ripple announces strategic investments in Zilo and Licuido.
- August 2026: XRP rallies more than 12% to around $1.39–$1.40, retaking the key liquidation zone.
How Ripple's Institutional Push Is Fueling the Comeback
Fundamental momentum is also improving. In early August, Ripple announced strategic investments in Zilo, a UK-based transfer agency provider for wealth managers that has raised $58.7 million in equity funding, and Licuido, a tokenization provider regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The deals are designed to bring regulated transfer agency, issuance and collateral mobility to the XRP Ledger, allowing tokenized funds to be used as collateral from the point of issuance.
The investments follow a string of institutional milestones: London-based Aviva Investors launched a tokenized share class of its US Dollar Liquidity Fund on XRPL after approval from the Central Bank of Ireland, and Ripple launched Ripple Mint, a platform for institutions to mint and manage its RLUSD stablecoin. XRPL now ranks as the 11th-largest blockchain by tokenized real-world assets with $368 million on the network, part of a broader market where total RWA holders grew 50% to 1.57 million over 30 days.
What Analysts Are Saying: Targets From $8 to $10
Longer-term, some analysts see far more room to run. Black Swan Capitalist founder Versan Aljarrah has argued that XRP spent years building a large accumulation range with higher lows, and that extended consolidations historically produce stronger breakouts — leading him to target $10, or roughly a 900% gain from June's depressed levels.
Pseudonymous analyst Cryptollica struck a similar tone, noting that XRP's 10-day relative strength index hovered near levels that have appeared only around major accumulation phases. "In 13 years, XRP has only been this washed out 3 times," Cryptollica wrote. "The first 2 times, the crowd laughed, ignored it, and only understood the setup after price had already left." Cryptollica's chart pointed to a long-term target near $8 if XRP's ascending channel pattern plays out.
Where XRP Could Go Next — and the Risks That Remain
For now, the immediate focus is whether XRP can hold above $1.40 and convert the level into support. The $236.5 million short-liquidation cluster that acted as a magnet has largely been triggered, and a failure to hold gains could send the token back toward a fair value gap between $1.00 and $0.63 identified by analysts. The broader backdrop remains a late-stage bear market — CryptoQuant recently observed whales accumulating across crypto as the downturn nears its final phase — which could either cap XRP's upside or, if the trend reverses, accelerate a broader recovery.
The Bottom Line: What Investors Should Watch
- XRP is trading near $1.39, up more than 12% in 24 hours, after bottoming at $1.01 in late June.
- The rally validates a June setup that flagged the $1.39–$1.40 zone as a short-liquidation magnet.
- Whale accumulation, shrinking exchange supply and $243 million in spot ETF inflows since April underpinned the move.
- Ripple's tokenization push — including Zilo, Licuido, Ripple Mint and Aviva Investors — is expanding XRPL's utility.
- Analyst targets range from $8 to $10, but a loss of $1.40 could reopen downside toward the $1.00–$0.63 range.
